By Graham Thomas
The new rugby campaign is still some weeks away here in Wales, but like Amazon and Netflix, the global season never sleeps.
So, just as you may have been digesting the Sevens tournament at the Olympics in Paris, off the back of Wales’ summer tour to Australia, the kitchen doors are swung off their hinges and in come the waiters, ready to serve up the Rugby Championship.
On Saturday, Australia host South Africa in Brisbane, followed by New Zealand against Argentina in Wellington.
This will be the first Rugby Championship since last year’s World Cup. You’ll remember that tournament. It was meant to be the one where European teams were going to prove the gap between the northern and southern hemispheres had finally been bridged.
In fact, Ireland, France and Wales bombed out at the quarter-final stage as New Zealand and South Africa made their usual reliable progress, where one or other – or, in this case, both – contest the final.
Since then, Ireland have shared a summer series with South Africa, but both Wales and England lost 2-0 on tour to Australia and New Zealand, respectively. France also lost one and won one of their two-game series in Argentina.
All of which tells us that Ireland are the only Six Nations team who can be relied upon to at least dish out as much they receive back when they mix it with the Springboks, the All Blacks and the Aussies.
The Wallabies have recovered quickly from their disastrous World Cup campaign, but are they really any good just because they overcame Wales in two Tests?
Warren Gatland and the Wales management would have you believe that Australia are a strong force once more and losing efforts against them deserve some credit, but we are about to see whether the Aussies are actually any good when they face the Boks on Saturday.
South Africa have lost just twice in their last 15 games – on both occasions against Ireland – although their record in Brisbane is exceptionally poor, with just one win in 12 games since 1996.
The Springboks are heavy 2/9 favourites to win in Australia, with the Aussies at 7/2.
The fixture list appears to favour the Springboks. If they can put right their Queensland queasiness, and follow that up in Perth, then they can look forward to two matches against the All Blacks on their own soil, in Johannesburg and Cape Town.
For the Aussies, this a critical couple of years as next summer they will be hosting an incoming tour from the British and Irish Lions – a once-every-dozen years opportunity to rinse the corporate world and promote the sport Down Under.
After that, they host the 2027 World Cup.
Rugby union has been in decline for several years in Australia, but there are signs of recovery.
The 2-0 series win against Wales may have been against serial losers in 2024, but for Joe Schmidt it represented a solid start to his time in charge and the former Ireland coach has since made it three-from-three by beating Georgia.
Notably, the 52,500 capacity Suncorp Stadium has sold out for Saturday’s visit of the world champions.
Wales – who will face the Aussies again in Cardiff in November, squeezed between Fiji and South Africa – will watch the opening weekend of the Rugby Championship with interest.
A victory for the Wallabies will put a better shine on Wales’ own two narrow defeats, but an easy blow-out win for Rassie Erasmus’ team will just underline how far Wales have fallen behind.
As for the Lions tour next season, at this distance out the squad being put together on the laptop of Andy Farrell probably doesn’t include a whole lot of Welshmen.
For hopefuls such as Taulupe Faletau, Jac Morgan, Tommy Reffell, Dewi Lake and Tomos Williams – and perhaps some others – the incentive to start the 2024-25 season with momentum could not be more clear.
