By Graham Thomas
Nothing quite sums up the state Wales have reached as their status with the bookmakers ahead of their Six Nations match against Italy in Rome.
Wales have won their last nine matches on Italian soil and have not lost there since 2007, yet they are clear underdogs on Saturday.
Rarely can a team’s previous history in a fixture have been as clearly disregarded due to their awful current form.
Captain Jac Morgan insists the fact that few people seem to view his team as capable of beating a side that finished bottom of the table seven times in succession until last season, is something they can use to their advantage.
“It’s been a good week,” said Morgan.
“We’ve worked well. We’ve spoken about what we need to do at the weekend and are confident.
“We know it’s difficult, but we’ve had a good week in Nice and it’s been great to be able to spend a week together as a camp. We know the outside noise we have tried to create an atmosphere where we have stuck together as a group and stayed tight.”
Wales may have lost their last two Six Nations meetings with the Azzurri in Cardiff, but their record in the Eternal City looks as if it could last, well . . . eternally.
They won 29-17 two years ago, 48-7 in 2021and 26-15 in 2019. The last really close match in Rome was back in 2009, when Wales edged it 20-15, Gatland’s first trip there as Wales coach.
Now, though, Morgan is not the only one speaking about “noise” and trying to keep things quiet.
“You try and be positive as much as you possibly can,” said Gatland, who didn’t win a game in 2024, went back home to New Zealand on holiday, and was then told to carry as national coach by the WRU.
The proviso was that Abi Tierney, the chief executive, insisted Gatland had been “challenged” to improve things, whatever that might mean.
It was a vague enough statement to provide plenty of wriggle room, although it’s likely a defeat to Italy would act as a straightjacket – not allowing anyone to wriggle clear of some bitter home truths and a necessary departure, either after the match, or after the tournament.
Saturday will mark 490 days since Wales’ most recent Test victory.
“You try not to look at the white noise from the outside. We are focusing on ourselves,” added Gatland.
“I haven’t seen any of the external pressure – I try and stay away from that stuff. If you absorb yourself in that, I don’t see it as being positive in trying to portray to the players what we are asking them to do.”
Italy’s 31-19 defeat to Scotland at Murrayfield last Saturday was their third defeat in their last four Tests.
But coach Gonzalo Quesada has made just one change to his side. Benetton lock Niccolo Cannone comes into the second row in place of Harlequins forward Dino Lamb, who drops to the replacements’ bench.
Wales have had a day longer to prepare after opening the tournament with their 43-0 defeat to France in Paris – something Quesada has been keen to flag up.
“Wales have had a day more preparation than us and that is worth gold at this stage of the competition,” he said.
“Not a single one of us thinks that this will be an easy match. It will be a fierce battle against a team that will be very different from that of 2024, a team with a lot of experience and pride.”
Quesada, 50, was a shrewd outside-half for Argentina back in the day.
He was the leading point scorer at the 1999 World Cup, much of it hosted in Wales, although he often took so long to kick his goals that the media sarcastically dubbed him “Speedy Gonzalo”.
Now, over the course of a long and potentially painful 80 minutes, he could be the man who kicks Warren Gatland out of a job.
