US Presidential Race 2024 – The Welsh Perspective and Betting Odds
Wales and America have a long and rich history, with over 1.98 million Americans having Welsh ancestry. People of Welsh descent have also had a powerful effect on American politics. A third of the 54 signatories of the American Declaration of Independence were believed to be of Welsh descent. They included the Llandaff-born Francis Lewis, who moved to America at 21, signing the constitution on behalf of New York.
Ten of America’s Presidents also have Welsh roots. The second, John Adams , and his son John Quincy Adams, the sixth, are from a family that trace back to Carmarthenshire.
Today marks the conclusion of the 2024 U.S. presidential race, and it’s going down to the wire. It’s come down to a showdown between Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, and is drawing keen attention on both sides of the Atlantic, including here in Wales.
For Welsh observers, the election offers a dramatic clash of personalities and political philosophies that could profoundly influence U.S.-UK relations, global trade, and foreign policy—issues of no small importance to Wales in this increasingly interconnected world. Betting markets are also in overdrive, reflecting both the uncertain stakes and intensity of this high-profile race.
The Candidates
Where to start with the irrepressible and unquenchable Donald Trump. Having previously served as president from 2017 to 2021 he’s making a comeback bid, continuing his signature “America First” stance. Known for his unpredictable style and populist rhetoric, Trump is expected to court the conservative base with promises to tighten immigration laws, boost the economy through tax cuts, and recalibrate U.S. alliances. For Wales, a second Trump administration could mean further unpredictability in trade policies and international relations, particularly as Brexit-related negotiations and trade talks continue to evolve.
On the Democratic side, Kamala Harris stands as a historic figure as the first woman of mixed race descent to be a major party’s presidential candidate. Currently the sitting vice president, Harris emphasises progressive values, including expanding healthcare access, tackling climate change, and advancing social justice. A Harris victory could signal a return to policies aligned with the Biden administration’s priorities, including stronger commitments to environmental goals—potentially echoing the values seen in Welsh climate initiatives.
Policy Implications for Wales
From a Welsh perspective, Trump’s potential return to office may revive his administration’s former “America First” policies, which often meant scepticism toward international agreements and unpredictable trade deals. Conversely, Harris would likely maintain, if not strengthen, the U.S.-UK special relationship, though she might prioritise multilateral agreements on climate change and trade. Wales, known for its manufacturing exports and agricultural products, will be watching closely for hints on trade policies that could impact Welsh industries.
Betting Odds and Predictions
As of the latest odds, Trump and Harris are running close, with betting markets slightly favouring Trump at 8/13 compared to Harris at 6/4. However, these numbers fluctuate as polling data emerges and debates intensify. Betting markets often capture the ebb and flow of sentiment—highlighting how volatile and divisive this election has become. For Welsh bettors, Trump’s high media visibility and polarizing reputation might make him the more predictable choice, whereas Harris’s more moderate, but less flamboyant, approach may appeal to those betting on stability.
Conclusion
This election could have lasting implications for Wales and the rest of the UK. The outcome will likely shape U.S. policy in ways that affect everything from global trade to environmental initiatives and international alliances. While Trump promises a populist resurgence, Harris champions progressive change, each offering distinct visions of America’s future. For Welsh observers, this is not just an American election—it’s a global event that could resonate all the way across the Atlantic.
