By Graham Thomas
Wales start their Autumn Nations Series campaign this weekend, but Sunday’s match against Fiji is unlikely to be the critical one.
Granted, Warren Gatland’s team have not won for over a year and have slipped beneath the Fijians in the world rankings – to 11th, one place lower than the South Seas Islanders.
But things change quickly in rugby and the Fiji that were hammered 57-17 last week by Scotland did not bear much resemblance to the hard-edged team that reached the quarter-finals of last year’s World Cup before they were narrowly beaten by England.
Every four years, Fiji remind the world of their athletic brilliance and superb ball skills.
But in between times they simply lack the money, resources and playing structures to maintain the level of competitiveness they achieve at World Cups.
They turned up at Murrayfield without 11 key players earning their crust around Europe and although those players will be back available for Sunday’s game, it is too much to expect a couple of days in Cardiff to get them to the same level as a month together last year before the tournament in France.
Wales should win comfortably and anything less than a 30-point margin will simply show how far Wales are behind the free-scoring Scots.
No, the real crunch fixture for Wales this month – and for Gatland, in particular – is next weekend’s match against Australia.
Gatland admitted last month that Wales needed to target two wins from their three Tests this month if they are to claim to have made progress.
Given that the final match is against South Africa, the middle game against the Wallabies already looks makes or break – if not for Gatland’s position, then for any suggestion of an upward curve.
Nine defeats in a row can be ended with a win over the Fijians, but to lose to the ninth-ranked Wallabies the following week would be to undermine claims of turning any corner.
It has been noticeable that the collective message from the Wales players and coaches over the past fortnight has been of the need to start winning. Not learning lessons, or improving. Winning.
“School time is over”, said Wales second row Will Rowlands, in reference to the fact that talk of development and learnings for a young team needs to stop.
It may not be entirely coincidental that when Gatland met recently with WRU board members for a review of last season’s campaign, he was told the constant chorus about “building towards the next World Cup” had to stop.
Professional sport, he was reminded, involves two plans – the long term and the short term and no coach gets the luxury to choose one over the other.
Banging on about how good Wales are going to be at the 2027 World Cup isn’t going to sell many tickets, much sponsorship, or merchandise around these November games or the 2025 Six Nations which starts in 12 weeks.
The question to be settled is can any coach, or group of players, simply talk their way into winning again?
Self-belief and rhetoric seem capable of overcoming a good deal these days, but can Gatland Make Wales Great Again?
Some of those loyal to him over past campaigns seem to think so. Gareth Anscombe has been recalled after overcoming an absent international year with injuries and will be favourite to wear the No.10 shirt against Fiji.
“Winning is a habit and so is losing and maybe with so many young players, this group have got into the habit of losing,” says Anscombe.
“I am hopeful that some of the experience that has returned to this squad is going to be enough to turn things around. There’s myself, Will Rowlands, Adam Beard and Jac Morgan who have all returned.
“People think experienced players just make a difference on game day. But it’s more than that. It’s having them around to drive the whole group in the right way in the build-up to matches that really matters.”
Scotland are 13/5 to beat South Africa, with the Springboks priced at 3/10.
